James Fallows' SOTU tips

James Fallows wrote speeches for President Carter and has been a political journalist since leaving politics. He has five tips for watching Tuesday's speech, which I will be doing so you don't have to:

The challenge and problem for Donald Trump is that his natural speaking style is the exact opposite of what these formal occasions require. To the best of my knowledge, he has never once delivered a speech in the style that works best for SOTUs.

Here the viewer-tip will apply to the first 15 minutes of the speech. That’s usually as long as Trump can stay “on message”: Sticking with the script, reading the prompter as if he’s seen the words before, omitting the “like nobody has seen before” or “prices down 800%” marginalia, sounding as “big tent” as MAGA policies allow.

If he lasts that long, it will be a sign of a different kind of speech from what we’ve come to expect. But if he reverts to form in this opening stretch, when the audience will be largest, even with a few casual riffs that make him feel comfortable but aren’t in the script, we’ll know what the rest of the speech will be like.

Can Donald Trump surprise us all, by choosing this moment to seem calm, focused, purposeful, broad-spirited? Which is what the three presidents mentioned above managed to do, during SOTUs at low points in their lives? Which is what inspirational leaders through history are renowned for? Could he possibly meet the test of self-control, at a time when it matters most?

Some terminally online people don't think he'll even give the speech. Others wonder how bad his sundowning will be. We'll find out, and I'll be live-blogging.